Have you ever been in a meeting, or perhaps in a class, where no one asked the obvious question? Maybe everyone was so mired in minutiae that no one stopped to take a step back, or perhaps they were afraid that the question was so elementary that asking it would only make them look dumb. Then, when someone finally did blurt out the question on everyone's minds, you could almost hear the collective sigh of relief.
I think many of us take a similar approach to managing our portfolios. We pay lots of attention to the small stuff--fund manager comings and goings, short-term performance moves, which fund has the biggest weighting in the sector du jour--but we might not step back and ask the question that really matters: Is my portfolio on track to get me to my goals?
The answer to that question is far from simple. Most of us are trying to oversee multiple accounts--our own 401(k) plan and perhaps that of our spouse, as well as various IRAs and taxable accounts. Drawing a bead on what all of these accounts add up to--and look like--as a whole is no mean feat; projecting future returns might seem downright mind-bending.
But answering that question can be actually quite simple, thanks to some cool tools on Morningstar.com. Set aside an hour or so to go through these steps.
Step 1: Track down your latest account statements, or go online to gather the most recent values for all of your holdings.
Step 2: Proceed to Morningstar's Instant X-Ray tool by clicking the Tools tab at the top of the Morningstar.com home page. (The tool is free to Morningstar.com users.) Enter the ticker associated with each of your stocks or funds, along with the most recently available value for that holding. The Instant X-Ray tool includes a "Ticker lookup" if you need it. For money market holdings and other cash, type "CASH$" in the ticker field, followed by the amount.
Step 3: Once you've entered all of your holdings and their values, click on the "Show Instant X-Ray" tab at the top of the page. You'll be able to see how your portfolio's holdings shake out across asset classes--the amount you have invested in stocks (foreign and U.S.), bonds, cash, and other assets (convertibles and other not-so-neatly classified securities). You'll also be able to see how your portfolio's assets are spread across different investment styles, as depicted by Morningstar's style box, as well as the portfolio's percentage in each sector and stock type.
Bear in mind: This is truly an X-Ray, so the tool isn't just plopping your entire allocation to your large-cap value fund in the large-value square of the style box. Instead, it sizes up the actual holdings in that large-value fund: its cash position, its holdings in foreign stocks, and any positions in stocks that don't happen to land in the large-value square of the style box.
Step 4: Before going further with X-Ray, ask yourself whether you know how much you should have allocated to stocks, bonds, and cash based on your goals, current assets, savings rate, and time horizon. If the answer is no, proceed to Step 5. If the answer is yes, skip to Step 6.
Step 5: If you're not sure what your asset allocation should be or whether you're saving enough to meet your goals, your next step is to click on "Save Instant X-Ray Holdings as a Portfolio" (At this point, you'll be asked to register as a free user of Morningstar.com, if you're not one already.) Make sure the "Enter New Portfolio" box is checked. After that, you'll be asked to "Choose Your Portfolio Type." If you'd like Morningstar's Portfolio Manager to keep track of any purchases and sales on an ongoing basis--as well as to track your portfolio's rate of return--check the box alongside "Transaction Portfolio." (You'll then be asked to provide specific details about when you bought your shares and how much you paid for them.) If you're only looking to keep tabs on your portfolio's ongoing positioning, check the box alongside "Watch List Portfolio." Name your portfolio; sign up for any alerts, e-mail messages, or newsletters that appeal to you; and click "Done."
Once you've stored your portfolio in Portfolio Manager, click on the X-Ray tab within the Portfolio Manager tool. (The X-Ray tab is for Premium Members of Morningstar.com; for a free trial of Premium Membership, click here.) After that, click on X-Ray Interpreter, where you'll see text and icons that help put your portfolio in context. For example, the text might tell you that your stock/bond mix is appropriate only for those with very long time horizons, or an icon might signal that your portfolio is heavy on health-care stocks.
If you'd like more specific guidance on whether your current portfolio is on track to meet your goals, proceed to the Asset Allocator tool, also on Morningstar.com's Tools cover page. (This tool is also for Premium Members of Morningstar.com) Asset Allocator lets you play with a few key variables--your time horizon, your asset allocation, the amount you have to invest each month, and the amount you hope to amass in the end--and shows you how probability of you reaching your savings goal based on these variables. If you've entered a portfolio in Portfolio Manager, you'll be able to use your actual portfolio to help size up whether you'll meet--or fall short of--your goals. (Your portfolio's name should appear in the drop-down box alongside "Select Portfolio.")
Does it look like you'll be able to meet your goals, based on your current portfolio, savings rate, and time horizon? If so, give yourself a pat on the back. If, on the other hand, it appears that your portfolio will fall short of your goals, it's time to roll up your sleeves and analyze the options that are available to you. In next week's column, I'll discuss some specific steps you can take for getting your portfolio on the right track.
Step 6: Assuming you have a sense of what your target asset allocation is, you can use Instant X-Ray to find out whether your portfolio--based on the current positioning of each of the funds in it--is where it should be.
The first--and most important--step is to find out whether your stock, bond, and cash allocations are within your target ranges. After you've done that, turn your attention to your portfolio's style-box positioning. Ideally, you'll see a fairly even distribution among the growth, blend, and value columns of the equity style box. (Conservative investors might prefer slightly more in the value column, while investors with longer time horizons could make a case for holding more in growth stocks than they have in value.) Also check your portfolio's allocation among small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks. The Wilshire 5000 Index, a broad stock-market index, currently has roughly 70% of its assets in large-cap stocks, with another 20% in mid-caps and 10% in small companies. Most portfolios should be in that ballpark; you may find your portfolio has an outsized stake in small caps following the area's strong recent performance.
Finally, focus on some of the aggregate statistics at the bottom of the page. Under "Fees and Expenses," look at the "Average Mutual Fund Expense Ratio %" and compare it with the "Expense Ratio of Similarly Weighted Hypothetical Portfolio (%)."
As you go, take note of any problem areas: Maybe your portfolio's asset allocation is out of whack, too many of your funds are clustered in a single area of the style box, or you're paying more than you need to. I'll walk you through troubleshooting those issues in next week's column.
If you'd like more specific guidance on your portfolio and how it's positioned, or if you'd like to be able to monitor your portfolio on an ongoing basis, click on "Save Instant X-Ray Holdings as Portfolio" toward the top of the "Instant X-Ray Views" page. Then follow the directions in Step 5, above. |