Updated: 09-01-2015

The Market at 04:05PM ET
Dow: -469.68… | Nasdaq: -140.40… | S&P: -58.32…
NASDAQ Vol: 2.07 bln… Adv: 564… Dec: 2543…
NYSE Vol: 1.12 bln… Adv: 432… Dec: 2716…

Moving the Market

Soft manufacturing data from China and Europe weighs on sentiment

Crude oil reverses after surging nearly 30.0%

Sector Watch
Strong:
Weak: Energy, Financials, Industrials, Technology, Materials

04:05PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began September on a defensive note with a broad-based retreat that sent the S&P 500 lower by 3.0%. The benchmark index widened its Q3 loss to 7.0% while the Dow (-2.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (-2.9%) spent the day just ahead of the S&P 500.

Equity indices slumped at the start, responding to the overnight weakness in the futures market. To that point, index futures began retreating shortly after yesterday's closing bell and extended their losses during the Asian session with disappointing manufacturing data from China contributing to the cautious posture. Specifically, the official Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 from 50.0 while the Caixin Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 47.3 from 47.2, but both readings came in below 50.0, which signifies contraction. The Shanghai Composite began the month with a 1.2% slide while the disappointing data from China reminded global investors about the persistent growth concerns.

Investor sentiment saw little improvement during the European session as Germany's DAX, France's CAC, and UK's FTSE retreated throughout the day, posting losses between 2.4% and 3.0%. Once the U.S. session got going, equity indices retreated with dip-buyers showing little willingness to step into the fold. The second-largest sector by weight-financials (-3.5%)-underperformed throughout the day, which short-circuited any and all attempts at a rebound.

Similar to financials, the energy sector (-3.7%) displayed relative weakness since the opening bell. Crude oil continued its wild ride, which contributed to the daylong underperformance in the sector. The energy component plunged 7.7% to $45.41/bbl on Tuesday after soaring nearly 30.0% during the previous three sessions.

Elsewhere, the top-weighted technology sector (-3.4%) traded ahead of the broader market during morning action, but slipped behind the S&P 500 during the final hour as stocks headed to new lows for the day. The late selling was met with new highs in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 32.29, +3.86), which climbed into the 32.0% area as investors piled into downside protection.

With the key indices losing close to 3.0% apiece, more than 2700 NYSE-listed stocks ended the day with losses while only 428 issues registered gains.

The sell-off invited above-average trading volume as more than a billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Interestingly, Treasuries set their highs during overnight action and spent the day just below those highs while equities retreated. As a result, the 10-yr yield fell five basis points to 2.17%.

Economic data was limited to Construction Spending and ISM:

  • Construction spending increased 0.7% in July after increasing an upwardly revised 0.7% (from 0.1%) in June while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
    • Private residential construction increased 1.1% in July, up from a 0.9% increase in June
    • Private nonresidential construction spending rebounded in July, rising 1.5% after declining 0.7% in June
      • Big reversals were recorded in the manufacturing (4.7% from -0.5%) and power (2.1% from -0.7%) sectors while spending on lodging (-1.1%) and commercial (-1.0%) buildings declined
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 51.1 in August from 52.7 in July while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 52.6
    • The August decline came during a period where multiple regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys showed sizable contractions in manufacturing activities

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while the August ADP Employment Change survey (Briefing.com consensus 203K) will cross the wires at 8:15 ET. Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Cost data will follow at 8:30 ET while the Factory Orders report for July (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%) will be reported at 10:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 14:00 ET release of the Federal Reserve's September Beige Book.

  • Nasdaq Composite -2.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 -7.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -6.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -9.9% YTD
Dow: -469.68… | Nasdaq: -140.40… | S&P: -58.32…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 564/2543. …NYSE Adv/Dec 432/2716.

03:40PM ET
[BRIEFING.COM]
  • After rallying over $10/barrel in the past three sessions, WTI crude oil sold off today, losing 8% (or -$3.78), closing the day at $45.41/barrel
  • A number of catalysts continue to hit the oil market, including recent items such as U.S. oil production data and OPEC news
  • Ultimately, a decent part of the 3-day surge was short-covering
  • In electronic trade, oil is extending losses even further
  • In other energy, Oct natural gas rose $0.01 today to $2.70/MMBtu
  • Precious metals posted modest gains today, while copper fell again
  • Dec gold +0.7% to $1139.40/oz, while Dec silver +0.2% to $14.61/oz
  • Dec copper -1.7% to $2.30/lb
Dow: -541.97… | Nasdaq: -159.91… | S&P: -68.06…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 513/2360. …NYSE Adv/Dec 394/2740.

03:00PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 2.6% with one hour remaining in today's session.

Equity indices slumped out of the gate, adding to their losses throughout the session amid broad pressure. All ten sectors began the day in negative territory and they have extended their losses since then. The energy sector (-3.2%) remains behind the other groups after crude oil ended the pit session lower by 7.7% at $45.41/bbl., surrendering most of its gain from yesterday.

Elsewhere, Treasuries are on track to end the day with gains, but the 10-yr note has been fairly subdued intraday despite the selling in equities. The benchmark note is higher by 12 ticks with its yield down four basis points at 2.18%.

Dow: -410.21… | Nasdaq: -119.10… | S&P: -51.26…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 607/2377. …NYSE Adv/Dec 423/2674.

02:25PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the key indices tick down to fresh lows with the S&P 500 now down 2.6%.

With stocks slipping to new lows during afternoon action, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 32.17, +3.74) has climbed, indicating increasing demand for volatility protection among participants. Despite the daylong advance, the VIX remains well below levels seen last week on Monday when the opening plunge in equities sent the VIX into the 50.0% area.

Meanwhile, Treasuries remain in the top half of their trading ranges with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.18%.

Dow: -417.21… | Nasdaq: -115.81… | S&P: -50.83…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 590/2366. …NYSE Adv/Dec 424/2652.

01:55PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their session lows with the S&P 500 trading behind the Nasdaq Composite.

On a day where global manufacturing PMI readings came in below expectations, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index was unable to buck the trend.

The ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 51.1 in August from 52.7 in July. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the index to fall slightly to 52.6.

That was the lowest reading in the national index since it fell to 50.1 in May 2013.

Most of the key components of the PMI softened in August.

The Production Index fell to 53.6 in August from 56.0 in July. The drop came as new orders growth slowed (51.7 from 56.5) and a contraction in backlogs (46.5 from 42.5) extended for a third consecutive month.

The Employment Index fell to 51.2 in August from 52.7 in July.

Dow: -381.62… | Nasdaq: -96.76… | S&P: -45.20…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 627/2294. …NYSE Adv/Dec 468/2607.

01:35PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices have bounced back slightly since our last update, but still remain notably lower as selling pressure remains steady.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that J.P. Morgan (JPM 51.59, -2.51), Exxon Mobil (XOM 72.38, -2.86), and Microsoft (MSFT 41.98, -1.54) are underperforming. JPMorgan is lower alongside peers in the financial sector, the worst performing sector on the day, as interest rates decline, while Exxon Mobil is weaker as crude oil pulls back 7.25%.

With all 30 Dow components trading in negative territory, Coca-Cola (KO 38.81, -0.81) is outperforming the group, only declining by 1.3%

With today's meaningful decline, the DJIA is now down 3.13% this week, and 9.55% year-to-date.

 

Dow: -388.5… | Nasdaq: -97.01… | S&P: -45.96…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 603/2294. …NYSE Adv/Dec 440/2641.

01:00PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade broadly lower at midday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.5%) and S&P 500 (-2.6%) trailing the Nasdaq Composite (-2.3%).

Equity indices slumped out of the gate after index futures retreated throughout the night. The futures market began seeing weakness shortly after yesterday's cash close with disappointing manufacturing data from China contributing to the cautious posture. Specifically, the official Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 from 50.0 while the Caixin Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 47.3 from 47.2, but both readings came in below 50.0, which signifies contraction.

The cautious posture displayed during Asian trade carried over to Europe where major regional indices ended with losses between 2.4% and 3.0%.

Once the U.S. market opened, the key indices slumped, and they have languished near their early lows since then. Dip-buyers have been unwilling to step into the fold so far today as the second-largest sector-financials (-3.2%)-trades at the bottom of the leaderboard.

Elsewhere among influential sectors, technology (-2.5%) has kept pace with the broader market while health care (-2.2%) trades a bit ahead after surrendering 8.1% in August. Also of note, the energy sector (-3.2%) is among the weakest performers as crude oil pulls back after spiking nearly 30.0% in three days. Currently, WTI crude trades down 6.7% at $45.91/bbl, returning into the bottom half of yesterday's trading range.

Once again, with the market enduring another large swing, stock-specific news has been of second mind. Investors received just a handful of quarterly earnings this morning with Dollar Tree (DLTR 70.72, -5.54) trading lower by 7.3% after missing estimates and guiding lower.

Treasuries have held gains since the early going, but they have backed away from their highs, leaving the 10-yr yield lower by four basis points at 2.18%.

Economic data was limited to Construction Spending and ISM:

  • Construction spending increased 0.7% in July after increasing an upwardly revised 0.7% (from 0.1%) in June while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
    • Private residential construction increased 1.1% in July, up from a 0.9% increase in June
    • Private nonresidential construction spending rebounded in July, rising 1.5% after declining 0.7% in June.
      • Big reversals were recorded in the manufacturing (4.7% from -0.5%) and power (2.1% from -0.7%) sectors while spending on lodging (-1.1%) and commercial (-1.0%) buildings declined
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 51.1 in August from 52.7 in July while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline to 52.6
    • The August decline came during a period where multiple regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys showed sizable contractions in manufacturing activities
Dow: -415.41… | Nasdaq: -111.91… | S&P: -50.86…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 585/2299. …NYSE Adv/Dec 413/2652.

12:25PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in the market as the key indices remain just above their worst levels of the day.

Overall, the early trading dynamic has been uninspiring with the key indices trading in sideways fashion just above their lows. In our opening update we highlighted the NYSE A/D line, which showed fewer than 400 issues trading in the green. A small improvement has taken place since then, but there are still just 430 stocks in the green versus 2600 decliners.

Growth-sensitive energy (-2.8%) and financials (-2.9%) have paced the early slide and recent action saw the financial sector slide behind the energy space.

Dow: -356.12… | Nasdaq: -86.80… | S&P: -42.24…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 617/2221. …NYSE Adv/Dec 424/2613.

12:00PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain in the neighborhood of their session lows with the Dow (-2.0%) and S&P 500 (-2.0%) both trading behind the Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%).

The recent volatility has not been particularly encouraging to dip-buyers, who are exhibiting caution today after the market started the day on a defensive note. Cyclical sectors have paced the early selling and the growth-sensitive groups continue showing relative weakness while the four countercyclical groups show losses between 1.3% (health care) and 2.1% (telecom services).

Elsewhere, Treasuries remain near their recent levels with the 10-yr yield down four basis points a 2.18%.

Dow: -335.71… | Nasdaq: -74.93… | S&P: -39.16…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 633/2181. …NYSE Adv/Dec 418/2603.

11:30AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue facing heavy pressure with the S&P 500 trading lower by 1.9%.

The benchmark index has climbed about ten points off its low, but a lot more work remains ahead as six sectors continue trading behind the broader market with financials (-2.5%) representing a noteworthy pocket of weakness.

The financial sector has been pressured by some of its largest components like Bank of America (BAC 15.84, -0.50), Citigroup (C 51.28, -2.20), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 62.19, -1.91) with the trio down between 3.0% and 4.1%.

Meanwhile, the top-weighted technology sector (-1.6%) trades a bit ahead of the broader market, which is partially due to relative strength in the shares of Apple (AAPL 111.03, -1.73) as the largest sector component displays a slimmer loss than the S&P 500.

Dow: -317.91… | Nasdaq: -71.86… | S&P: -37.16…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 594/2184. …NYSE Adv/Dec 415/2599.

10:55AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their opening lows with the S&P 500 (-2.1%) trading behind the Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%).

Sellers have maintained control through the first 90 minutes of the day, evidenced by the A/D line which reveals just 380 NYSE listings trading higher versus more than 2600 decliners. All ten sectors remain in the red with four groups trading behind the broader market. Most notably, the financial sector (-2.7%) started the day in the neighborhood of the S&P 500, but the economically-sensitive sector has dropped to the bottom of the leaderboard since then.

Elsewhere, the energy sector has widened its decline to 3.6% as crude oil continues its pullback from a three-day surge than sent the energy component higher by nearly 30.0%. Today, however, WTI crude is lower by 6.4% at $46.04/bbl.

Dow: -365.41… | Nasdaq: -83.14… | S&P: -42.04…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 534/2198. …NYSE Adv/Dec 360/2638.

10:35AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM]
  • The dollar index has traded negative all session, dipping temporarily to overnight lows near 95.20
  • Global economic weakness and equity volatility has been seen recently as contributing to weakness in the index, primarily as a driver of rate-hike uncertainty. 
  • Following the release of underwhelming Chinese Manufacturing data (overnight) and slightly stronger-than expected US Construction spending data, the dollar is holding modest losses at -0.1% to 95.71
  • After rallying 27.7% over the past three trading sessions, WTI crude oil is trading notably lower today and has been in the red all day so far.
  • Front-month WTI Oct crude oil fell as low as $46.77/barrel in overnight trade, a decent drop from yesterday's $49.19/barrel pit close, and is now trading at -5.4% at $46.53/barrel.
    • It is worth noting that yesterday's intra-day swing in oil was the largest since 1990. The three-day move was also the largest move since 1990. Clearly, the oil market was showing us its irrational side.
  • Natural gas trended slightly below flat overnight, before rallying in early trade, to positives on the session. 
  • The natural gas market is continuing to see over-supply conditions, and this week's EIA inventory report (w/ est. of a 87 bcf build) is expected to confirm recent trends
  • Nat gas is now -0.3% to $2.68/MMBtu
  • Copper is experiencing heavy selling pressure, as weak Chinese data has prompted the market to focus on a slack in demand for the metal, which is now -1.1% to $2.31/lb
  • Precious metals are trading mixed, as gold has been a larger beneficiary of market expectations for a delay in the US rate hike. 
  • Gold is now +0.6% to $1138.60/oz, while silver hovers at moderate losses, down 0.4% to $14.52/oz
Dow: -278.70… | Nasdaq: -58.10… | S&P: -32.06…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 543/2113. …NYSE Adv/Dec 394/2558.

10:00AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 2.1%.

Just released, the ISM Index for August indicated a decline to 51.1 from 52.7 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a downtick to 52.6.

Separately, construction spending increased 0.7% month-over-month in July while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%.

Dow: -351.01… | Nasdaq: -80.48… | S&P: -40.53…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 441/2106. …NYSE Adv/Dec 325/2578.

09:45AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the trading day with losses close to 2.0% apiece amid early weakness in all ten sectors.

The S&P 500 trades lower by 2.0% with the energy space (-2.7%) opening behind the remaining nine groups amid continued volatile action in crude oil. The energy component is lower by 3.9% at $47.23/bbl after soaring more than 27.0% over the past three days.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, financials (-2.2%) trade behind the broader market while technology (-1.9%), consumer discretionary (-1.7%), and industrials (-1.8%) have spent the early action just ahead of the broader market.

Treasuries remain in the green, but they have retreated from their highs with the 10-yr yield down three basis points at 2.19%.

July Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and the ISM Index for August (expected 52.6) will both be reported at 10:00 ET.

Dow: -345.21… | Nasdaq: -85.45… | S&P: -39.65…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 368/2103. …NYSE Adv/Dec 269/2565.

09:07AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -54.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -121.70.

The stock market ended August on a lower note and September is set to begin in similar fashion as S&P 500 futures trade 54 points below fair value. Due to the sharply lower indication, the New York Stock Exchange has implemented Rule 48, which is aimed at smoothing the market open during periods of heightened volatility.

Index futures began their retreat shortly after yesterday's closing bell and saw continued weakness through the Asian session, which featured disappointing manufacturing data from China. The official Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 from 50.0 while the Caixin Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 47.3 from 47.2, but both readings came in below 50.0, which signifies contraction.

Things did not get much better by the start of the European session where the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 52.3 from 52.4; however employment data surprised to the upside as the July Unemployment Rate declined to 10.9% from 11.1%.

The renewed weakness in global equities has been met with demand for Treasuries, pressuring the 10-yr yield lower by six basis points to 2.16%.

Today's economic data will be limited to the 10:00 ET release of the July Construction Spending report (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and the ISM Index for August (expected 52.6).


08:59AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -53.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -120.20.

The S&P 500 futures trade 54 points below fair value.

It was a sea of red across equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region as a round of weaker than expected economic data, highlighted by China's official manufacturing PMI report for August showing a contraction for the first time in six months, triggered a wave of selling interest.

  • Economic data was plentiful:
    • China's August Manufacturing PMI 49.7 (expected 49.7; prior 50.0), August Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 (prior 53.9), August Caixin Manufacturing PMI revised to 47.3 (expected 47.2; prior 47.1), and August Caixin Services PMI 51.5 (expected 53.9; prior 53.8)
    • Japan's August Manufacturing PMI 51.7 (expected 51.9; prior 51.9) and Q2 Capital Spending +5.6% year-over-year (expected +9.0%; prior +7.3%)
    • South Korea's August Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 47.9 (prior 47.6), August CPI +0.2% month-over-month (expected +0.2%; prior +0.2%); +0.7% year-over-year (expected +0.7%; prior +0.7%), and August Trade Balance KRW 4.30 bln (expected KRW 6.07 bln; prior 7.70 bln) as Exports -14.7% year-over-year (expected -10.0%; prior -3.4%) and Imports -18.3% year-over-year (expected -14.9%; prior -15.3%)
    • India's August Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 52.3 (prior 52.7) and Q2 GDP +7.0% (expected +7.4%; prior +7.5%)
    • Australia's August AIG Manufacturing Index 51.7 (prior 50.4), July Building Approvals +4.2% month-over-month (expected +2.5%; prior -5.2%), Q2 Current Account AUD -19.0 bln (expected AUD -15.8 bln; prior AUD -13.5 bln), Q2 Net Exports Contribution -0.6% (expected -0.3%; prior +0.5%), July Private House Approvals -3.0% (prior +3.7%), and Commodity Prices -20.9% year-over-year (prior -19.1%)

------

  • Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.8% and finished on its lows for the day following some weaker than expected capital spending and manufacturing PMI data. In turn, disappointing manufacturing PMI data out of China ignited concerns about Japan's economic prospects. Losses were paced by the health care (-5.8%), consumer staples (-5.1%), consumer discretionary (-4.4%), and materials (-4.0%) sectors. Tosoh Corp (-10.1%), Yokohama Rubber Co. (-9.1%), and Eisai Co. (-7.5%) topped a very long list of losers. Out of the 225 index members, only two -- Pioneer Corp (+2.7%) and Meidensha Corp (+1.3%) -- ended the day higher.
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 2.2%, pulled lower by the disappointment surrounding weaker than expected economic data throughout the region. The Hang Seng closed near its lows for the day after falling 1.4% in the final hour of trading. China Mengniu Dairy (-6.8%), Tingyi Cayman Islands Holding Corp (-5.5%), and BOC Hong Kong Holdings (-5.5%) led the losers. Out of the 50 index members, only two -- Hang Lung Properties (+0.9%) and Link REIT (+0.4%) -- ended the day higher.
  • China's Shanghai Composite declined 1.2%, recovering a significant portion of an early 4.8% loss. The decline followed on the heels of the government's official manufacturing PMI report showing a drop into contraction territory for the month of August. That's the first drop below 50 in six months and the weakest reading since August 2012, according to reports. Separately, the Caixin manufacturing PMI for August, which covers smaller-sized firms, was revised up to 47.3 from 47.1, yet that still the weakest reading since March 2009.

Major European indices trade lower across the board with Germany's DAX (-3.0%) leading the slide. Elsewhere, Greece has extended a short-selling ban on stocks for another month, but lifted its ban on shorting derivatives.

  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone July Unemployment Rate 10.9% (expected 11.1%; prior 11.1%) while August Manufacturing PMI 52.3 (expected 52.4; prior 52.4)
    • Germany's August Manufacturing PMI 53.3 (expected 53.2; prior 53.2) while Unemployment Rate held at 6.4%, as expected
    • UK's August Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (expected 52.0; prior 51.9) while July Mortgage Approvals 68,760 (expected 68,000; prior 67,070)
    • France's August Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (expected 48.6; prior 48.6)
    • Italy's Q2 GDP +0.3% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.2%; prior 0.3%); +0.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.5%; last 0.7%). Separately, July Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.0% (expected 12.6%; prior 12.5%) and August Manufacturing PMI 53.8 (expected 54.8; last 55.3)
    • Spain's August Manufacturing PMI 53.2 (expected 53.2; last 53.6)
    • Swiss August SVME PMI 52.2 (expected 49.7; last 48.7)

------

  • UK's FTSE is lower by 2.8% with miners pacing the retreat. Anglo American, BHP Billiton, and Glencore are down between 5.0% and 5.7%. On the upside, Meggitt is the lone advancer, trading higher by 1.5%.
  • In France, the CAC has surrendered 2.8% amid broad weakness. Financials are among the weakest performers with AXA, BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale down between 2.9% and 3.7%. Energy-related names have held up relatively well with Technip up 0.7% and Total lower by 0.3%.
  • Germany's DAX underperforms with a loss of 3.0%. Exporters BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen are all down near 3.0% while Deutsche Bank has surrendered 2.5%.

08:27AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -43.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -96.70.

U.S. equity futures remain near their pre-market lows with S&P 500 futures trading 43 points below fair value.

Global growth concerns have been known to weigh on investor sentiment as of late and that is the case once again this morning. Overnight, China reported its official Manufacturing PMI (49.7, as expected) and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI (47.3; last 47.2) with both readings coming in below 50.0, which signifies contraction. Disappointing data has also contributed to broad-based weakness in Europe after the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked down to 52.3 from 52.4 (expected 52.4).

The continued worries have resulted in strength for Treasuries with the 10-yr yield down six basis points at 2.16%.


07:55AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -40.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -93.00.

U.S. equity futures trade sharply lower amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover 40 points below fair value after spending the entire night in negative territory.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have rallied, sending the 10-yr yield lower by five basis points to 2.16%.

Today's economic data will be limited to the 10:00 ET release of the July Construction Spending report (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and the ISM Index for August (expected 52.6).

In U.S. corporate news of note:

  • Dollar Tree (DLTR 73.00, -3.26): -4.3% after missing estimates and guiding lower.
  • Qiwi (QIWI 24.80, -1.35): -5.2% despite beating expectations and guiding higher.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Asian markets ended lower. China's Shanghai Composite -1.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -2.2%, and Japan's Nikkei -3.8%
    • Economic data was plentiful:
      • China's August Manufacturing PMI 49.7 (expected 49.7; prior 50.0), August Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 (prior 53.9), August Caixin Manufacturing PMI revised to 47.3 (expected 47.2; prior 47.1), and August Caixin Services PMI 51.5 (expected 53.9; prior 53.8)
      • Japan's August Manufacturing PMI 51.7 (expected 51.9; prior 51.9) and Q2 Capital Spending +5.6% year-over-year (expected +9.0%; prior +7.3%)
      • South Korea's August Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 47.9 (prior 47.6), August CPI +0.2% month-over-month (expected +0.2%; prior +0.2%); +0.7% year-over-year (expected +0.7%; prior +0.7%), and August Trade Balance KRW 4.30 bln (expected KRW 6.07 bln; prior 7.70 bln) as Exports -14.7% year-over-year (expected -10.0%; prior -3.4%) and Imports -18.3% year-over-year (expected -14.9%; prior -15.3%)
      • India's August Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 52.3 (prior 52.7) and Q2 GDP +7.0% (expected +7.4%; prior +7.5%)
      • Australia's August AIG Manufacturing Index 51.7 (prior 50.4), July Building Approvals +4.2% month-over-month (expected +2.5%; prior -5.2%), Q2 Current Account AUD -19.0 bln (expected AUD -15.8 bln; prior AUD -13.5 bln), Q2 Net Exports Contribution -0.6% (expected -0.3%; prior +0.5%), July Private House Approvals -3.0% (prior +3.7%), and Commodity Prices -20.9% year-over-year (prior -19.1%)
    • In news:
      • The Reserve Bank of Australia held its key interest rate steady at 2.00%, as expected
  • Major European indices trade lower across the board. Germany's DAX -2.5%, UK's FTSE -2.3%, and France's CAC -2.2%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -1.7% and Spain's IBEX -2.1%
    • In economic data:
      • Eurozone July Unemployment Rate 10.9% (expected 11.1%; prior 11.1%) while August Manufacturing PMI 52.3 (expected 52.4; prior 52.4)
      • Germany's August Manufacturing PMI 53.3 (expected 53.2; prior 53.2) while Unemployment Rate held at 6.4%, as expected
      • UK's August Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (expected 52.0; prior 51.9) while July Mortgage Approvals 68,760 (expected 68,000; prior 67,070)
      • France's August Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (expected 48.6; prior 48.6)
      • Italy's Q2 GDP +0.3% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.2%; prior 0.3%); +0.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.5%; last 0.7%). Separately, July Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.0% (expected 12.6%; prior 12.5%) and August Manufacturing PMI 53.8 (expected 54.8; last 55.3)
      • Spain's August Manufacturing PMI 53.2 (expected 53.2; last 53.6)
      • Swiss August SVME PMI 52.2 (expected 49.7; last 48.7)
    • Among news of note:
      • Greece has extended a short-selling ban on stocks for another month, but lifted its ban on shorting derivatives

05:53AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -43.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -97.70.

05:53AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...18165.69...-724.80...-3.80%.  Hang Seng...21185.43...-485.20...-2.20%.

05:53AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6088.23...-159.70...-2.60%.  DAX...9960.47...-299.00...-3.00%.

04:15PM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] There was oil today and then there was everything else.  That doesn't mean, though, that "everything else" wasn't interesting.  It's just that the movement in oil prices was so spectacular that it garnered top billing throughout the session.

To the latter point, crude prices were down 3.6% in early trading to $43.60 per barrel.  They would settle the day up 8.8% at $49.20 per barrel, representing a huge 13% swing from low to settlement price.

There were several factors contributing to the sharp reversal:

  • The Energy Information Administration released a report showing monthly production in the U.S. in June was estimated to be 9.3 million barrels per day or roughly 100,000 barrels per day less than May and 300,000 barrels per day less than April
  • OPEC published a bulletin in which it said it stands ready to talk to other producers about the low oil prices; and
  • Big short-covering activity on the last day of the month (with Monday's move, oil prices have surged 27% over the last three sessions)

The reversal in oil prices triggered a reversal in the S&P 500 energy sector, which was down 2.6% shortly after the start of trading.  It would end the day up 1.1%, which left it as the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, as well as the only sector to finish the day in positive territory.

By and large, the stock market was stymied by selling efforts on Monday that were rooted in the following factors:

  • An awareness that Fed Vice Chairman Fischer suggested in a speech over the weekend that a rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting is still a possibility
    • Mr. Fischer indicated his belief that inflation should move higher as the effects of falling oil prices and the stronger dollar dissipate  
  • A sense the market was due for a pullback after rallying 6.5% from the low it hit last Monday
  • Last Friday's low in the S&P 500 (1975.19) being taken out in early action and an inability to take out last Friday's closing level (1988.87) on a subsequent rebound try; and
  • A general lack of convincing sector leadership

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August was the only economic release on today's docket.  It checked in weaker than expected at 54.4 (Briefing.com consensus 54.7), which was down slightly from 54.7 in July.  It didn't carry much weight in moving the market since participants were keyed in more on Tuesday's release of the national ISM Index and a battery of PMI readings out of China, Japan, and the eurozone.

Notably, the Treasury market coughed up early gains even as the stock market struggled to gain upside traction.  Its turnaround was precipitated by the spike in oil prices, which played into Mr. Fischer's view that inflation should move higher.  The yield on the 10-yr note, which dipped to 2.14%, eventually pushed back up to 2.21%; meanwhile, the yield on the 2-yr Treasury note, which stood at 0.72%, bumped up to 0.74%.

The U.S. Dollar Index, however, was a bit weaker, falling 0.3% to 95.87 as both the euro and the yen gained ground against the greenback.

The majority of Dow components ended the day lower, led by Boeing (BA 130.68, -2.56, -1.9%), which was the biggest price loser.  Conversely, Goldman Sachs (GS 188.60, +0.85, +0.6%) was the biggest price gainer and helped the Dow cut an early 199-point loss.  

Boeing's weakness weighed on the industrials sector (-0.9%), but it was the health care sector (-1.9%) that was the weakest area, pressured by losses in the medical equipment and major pharmaceutical stocks.  Separately, the biotech stocks also succumbed to selling efforts, evidenced by the 3.3% decline in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 341.80, -11.48).

Volume was again relatively heavy with 1.08 billion shares changing hands at the NYSE.

For the month of August, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 declined 6.6%, 6.9%, 6.3%, and 6.3%, respectively.

Dow: -114.98… | Nasdaq: -51.82… | S&P: -16.69…
NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1388/1483. …NYSE Adv/Dec 1351/1733.

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