Updated: 12-17-2014

  • Volatility has dried up since the October 15 blowout in the Treasury market. 
  • A choppy month of November has left yields across the curve stuck in tight ranges as participants continue to debate whether or not the Fed is ready to try and lift the Fed Funds Rate off the zero bound. 
  • Economic data has been mostly impressive as of late, but the complex remains wary of a Fed rate hike as weakness overseas and a downgrade to the near-term inflation outlook have provided some headwinds. 
  • Up front, the 2Y has been trapped between 0.500% and 0.550%.
  • In the belly, the 5Y has spent most of the month between 1.600% and 1.650%.
  • The 10Y has tread between 2.300% and 2.35%.
  • Action at the long end has been stuck between 3.000% and 3.100% for the past month.  
  • The next FOMC meeting does not take place until December 16/17 so investors will have plenty of time to parse new data. 

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