Updated: 08-29-2016

The Market at 03:28PM ET
10-Year: +19/32…1.57…
EUR/USD: 1.1185…
USD/JPY: 101.99…

Moving the Market

  • July Personal Income: Actual 0.4%, Briefing.com consensus 0.4%, Prior 0.3% (revised up from 0.2%)
  • July Personal Spending: Actual 0.3%, Briefing.com consensus 0.3%, Prior 0.5% (revised up from 0.4%)
  • July Core PCE Prices: Actual 0.1%, Briefing.com consensus 0.1%, Prior 0.1%

03:28PM ET

Treasuries Reverse Most of Post-Yellen Losses

  • U.S. Treasuries rallied steadily throughout today's session to trade at or near their pre-Yellen levels from Friday morning.The trade appeared to be more of a reflexive buy-the-dip reaction to a Treasury market that has offered very few buying opportunities in recent weeks than a flight-to-quality (the S&P 500 is up 0.57% to 2,181.5). Both personal income and spending data out this morning were in line with estimates and featured upward revisions to the prior months' readings. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.01% to 95.58 after a very strong gain on Friday
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -4 bps to 0.80%
    • 5-yr: -6 bps to 1.17%
    • 10-yr: -7 bps to 1.57%
    • 30-yr: -7 bps to 2.22%
  • News:
    • U.S. personal income rose 0.4% m/m in July, in line with the Briefing.com consensus. June's growth was 0.3%, revised up from 0.2%
      • Personal spending climbed 0.3% m/m in July, also matching the Briefing.com consensus estimate. June's growth in personal spending was 0.5%, revised up from 0.4%
      • Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) Prices ticked up by 0.1% m/m in July (1.6% y/y), in line with both the Briefing.com consensus and June's growth rate
      • The savings rate climbed from 5.5% to 5.7%
    • Over the weekend, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (FOMC voter) said that the case for a further rate hike from the Fed was "compelling"
      • Mester acknowledged that Q2 GDP growth was soft (1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate) but noted that the consumer is strong
    • The Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Business Index fell more than expected in August to -6.2 from -1.3 in July
  • Commodities:
    • WTI crude: -1.28% to $47.03/bbl.
    • Gold: +0.11% to $1,327.3/troy oz.
    • Copper: +0.14% to $2.0815/lb.
  • Currencies:
    • EUR/USD: -0.09% to 1.1185
    • USD/JPY: +0.14% to 101.99
  • Data out Tuesday:
    • June Case-Shiller 20-city Index (09:00 ET)
    • August Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET)
  • Fed Speaker:
    • Fed Vice Chair Fischer (06:30 ET)

10-Yr: +19/32… EUR/USD: 1.1185… USD/JPY: 101.99…

02:49PM ET

Dollar Hesitates After Friday Rally

  • The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.03% to 95.54 today as only the Australian dollar and kiwi saw significant appreciation against the greenback. The U.S. dollar soared on Friday after Fed Vice Chair Fischer guided markets to interpret Yellen's speech as opening the door to a September rate hike. This week holds a heavy dose of economic data. Thursday's session features August's PMI data for China and the U.S. Employment Situation Report for August may solidify the case for or against a September rate hike on Friday
  • EUR/USD: -0.05% to 1.1191
    • The Italian Business Confidence Index fell more than expected in August to 101.1 from the prior reading of 102.9
      • The Consumer Confidence Index also fell more than expected in August to 109.2 from 111.2 in July
    • Consumer price index data for August will be released on Wednesday
  • GBP/USD: -0.14% to 1.3115
    • The U.K.'s August construction PMI comes out on Friday
  • USD/CHF: -0.08% to 0.9776
  • USD/JPY: +0.09% to 101.93
    • Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda spoke over the weekend and said that the BoJ would approve an easing of monetary policy "without hesitation." He said that the recent decline in inflation may show that inflation expectations are not well-anchored
    • Industrial production data for July is out on Wednesday    
  • USD/CNY: +0.03% to 6.677
    • Purchasing manager index (both manufacturing, Caixin and official, and non-manufacturing) data will be released on Thursday
  • USD/CAD: +0.11% to 1.3013 
    • Q2 GDP data, out on Wednesday, is expected to show Canadian output falling by 1.5% q/q
  • AUD/USD: +0.18% to 0.7577
    • In Australia, HIA New Home Sales fell 9.7% m/m in July, reversing June's 8.2% jump
    • July's retail sales report comes out on Thursday
  • NZD/USD: +0.33% to 0.7260

10-Yr: +20/32… EUR/USD: 1.1191… USD/JPY: 101.93…

02:05PM ET

Treasuries Rally, Shrugging off Yellen's Speech

  • Treasuries are continuing to unwind Friday's losses, with the long end of the curve making up the most ground. We are going to largely look past Tuesday's U.S. economic data but Fed Vice Chair Fischer will be on Bloomberg Radio at 06:30 ET tomorrow morning, according to our schedule. Fischer spoke extensively last week and appears to favor at least one rate hike in 2016, barring significant deterioration in the U.S. economy, so we don't expect many surprises from him. On Wednesday, we'll hear from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. He votes on the FOMC this year and we currently see him as favoring a rate hike by year-end.In mid-April, Rosengren said that the Treasury market was too pessimistic about the path for the Fed funds rate (underestimating the number of and time until rate increases). Then in May (before the May jobs report and the Brexit vote), he said that rate hikes should resume. Of less immediate interest will be Chicago Fed President Evans on Wednesday. Evans said in early August that one rate hike in 2016 may be "appropriate," although he has also sympathized in the past with the argument that the Fed should wait until realized inflation hits its 2.0% target. Evans does not vote this year but will take Cleveland Fed President Mester's place next year and he is said to be a powerful foice at FOMC meetings
  • Cleveland Fed President Mester told the Financial Times this weekend the case for a further increase in Fed funds was "compelling"
    • That gives us George, Mester, Fischer, Dudley, almost definitely Rosengren and probably Yellen in favor of a rate hike in 2016, and some of them are in favor of a September rate hike
  • The S&P 500 is up 0.65% to 2,183.1 and WTI crude is down 1.11% to $47.11/bbl.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.01% to 95.56 and gold is up 0.16% to $1,328/troy oz.
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -3 bps to 0.81%
    • 5-yr: -6 bps to 1.17%
    • 10-yr: -7 bps to 1.56%
    • 30-yr: -7 bps to 2.22%

10-Yr: +20/32… EUR/USD: 1.1189… USD/JPY: 101.97…

12:58PM ET

Stocks Sit on Highs

  • Treasuries continue to trade higher today as WTI loses 1.66% to $46.85/bbl. and the S&P 500 adds 0.61% at 2,182.2. The rate hike fears from Friday have significantly subsided to start the week and Treasury traders are betting that the U.S. jobs market will not be able to put in another big month of job growth after robust showings in June and July. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.13% to 95.70 as the Japanese yen weakens following BoJ Governor Kuroda's dovish remarks in Jackson Hole on Saturday
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -3 bps to 0.81%
    • 5-yr: -4 bps to 1.19%
    • 10-yr: -5 bps to 1.58%
    • 30-yr: -5 bps to 2.24%

10-Yr: +14/32… EUR/USD: 1.1177… USD/JPY: 102.17…

12:03PM ET

DXY Tests 50-sma Following Jackson Hole: The Dollar Index is trading near the high end of its recent range. The DXY saw a nice bid after Jackson Hole comments from the top two board members provided a boost to the dollar. But the DXY is running into some resistance at its 50-sma (95.77) as we kick off a light volume ahead of the Holiday week. While trading volume may be light the economic calendar is full of reports culminating in the August jobs numbers due out Friday. Today, we saw the latest Personal Income and Spending and PCE Prices. All three came in line but the data is showing a pick up in wage growth, spending and inflation. This will support the Fed take that inflation is moving towards its 2% goal. But it may not provide the case for a two rate hike.

  • The euro has been under pressure and is moving back towards a key test of its 50-sma (1.1141) and the 200-sma (1.1113). For Europe, CPI data will be a key read as it has shown some signs of picking up the past few months. Give the ECBs 'one needle on the compass' mandate and Germany's aversion to pricing pressures this will be a key set of reports to follow. In fact, it could be the more important report for the Fed as hints that the ECB is moving closer to the Fed's tightening direction would help offset some potential dollar weakness.
  • U.K. markets were closed today so volume in sterling has been extremely light. But we are seeing the pound give up some of its recent gains. CFTC data showed a record amount of shorts sitting in sterling as markets continue to await the country's invocation of Article 50. The pound has seen a record amount of shorts for six weeks in a row.
  • The yen in the meantime has been the most bought currency over the past two weeks according to the CFTC data. The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda also spoke over the weekend at Jackson Hole, continuing his promise that the bank would do whatever it takes to meet its inflation targets. There was some expecting Mr. Kuroda to possibly raise the inflation target but he did not go that far. The yen has been idling in the 102 area for the majority of the session.

10-Yr: +11/32… EUR/USD: 1.1180… USD/JPY: 102.15…

11:56AM ET

Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDP Forecast Revised up to 3.5%

  • The Treasury complex is still sitting on gains late this morning as the S&P 500 adds 0.61% to 2,182.2. As we said on Friday, without some serious weakening in the U.S. economic data or tightening of financial conditions, the Fed looks set to raise its main policy rate at least once this year. Two hikes looks very unlikely, although Fed Vice Chair Fischer said that Yellen didn't rule that out on Friday. Fed fund futures currently show a 14% probability of more than one hike by year-end. WTI crude is down 1.57% to $46.89/bbl. and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.13% to 95.69
  • The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecast for Q3 U.S. GDP growth is now 3.5%, up from 3.4% on August 25. According to the Atlanta Fed:
    • The forecast for third-quarter real PCE growth increased from 3.5% to 3.8% after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. BEA. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to Q3 real GDP growth from 0.78 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points after Friday's Advance Economic Indicators Report
  • The yield on the French 10-year ODE is up to 0.20% today, having earlier hit a one-month high of 0.22%. 
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.82%
    • 5-yr: -4 bps to 1.19%
    • 10-yr: -5 bps to 1.58%
    • 30-yr: -5 bps to 2.24%

10-Yr: +15/32… EUR/USD: 1.1178… USD/JPY: 102.14…

11:56AM ET

Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDP Forecast Revised up to 3.5%

  • The Treasury complex is still sitting on gains late this morning as the S&P 500 adds 0.61% to 2,182.2. As we said on Friday, without some serious weakening in the U.S. economic data or tightening of financial conditions, the Fed looks set to raise its main policy rate at least once this year. Two hikes looks very unlikely, although Fed Vice Chair said that Yellen didn't rule that out on Friday. Fed fund futures currently show a 14% probability of more than one hike by year-end. WTI crude is down 1.57% to $46.89/bbl. and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.13% to 95.69
  • The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecast for Q3 U.S. GDP growth is now 3.5%, up from 3.4% on August 25. According to the Atlanta Fed:
    • The forecast for third-quarter real PCE growth increased from 3.5% to 3.8% after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. BEA. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to Q3 real GDP growth from 0.78 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points after Friday's Advance Economic Indicators Report
  • The yield on the French 10-year ODE is up to 0.20% today, having earlier hit a one-month high of 0.22%. 
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.82%
    • 5-yr: -4 bps to 1.19%
    • 10-yr: -5 bps to 1.58%
    • 30-yr: -5 bps to 2.24%

10-Yr: +15/32… EUR/USD: 1.1178… USD/JPY: 102.14…

10:55AM ET

Stocks Rebound

  • U.S. Treasuries remain higher today in a curve-flattening trade after strong personal income and spending data for July. The Core PCE price index was up 1.6% y/y, still short of the Fed's 2% target. The S&P 500 is up 0.47% to 2,179.1 as Friday's jump in interest rates unwinds. WTI crude is down 1.97% to $46.70/bbl. and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.18% to 95.74. Gold is down 0.08% to $1,324.8/troy oz.
  • The Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Business Index fell more than expected in August to -6.2 from -1.3 in July. The internals were not as bad as the headline reading, showing improvement in new orders and the growth rate of new orders
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.82%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.20%
    • 10-yr: -4 bps to 1.59%
    • 30-yr: -5 bps to 2.24%
  • 10-Year Yield (Daily): The notable development in this chart is that the 10-year yield found support at the broken downtrend (red) on Friday. Today's deep retracement of Friday's sell-off (in prices) is suspicious but not yet a conclusive reversal

  • 30-Year Yield (Daily): As the strongest maturity over the past few weeks, the 30-year yield has fallen back to sit below its 21 and 50-day moving averages today. We still see the fundamentals as largely out of line with reality. It's just hard to make a technical argument for selling the bond right now

10-Yr: +11/32… EUR/USD: 1.1170… USD/JPY: 102.17…

10:19AM ET

Investors Look Ahead to Jobs Data

  • The U.S. Treasury market is still hanging on to substantial gains this morning despite Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish remarks on Friday and solid personal income and spending data out this morning. The yield curve is flattening a touch but less than it had flattened earlier in the session. The big question to us is now what will happen with longer rates as the Fed tightens up policy. There is now a 30% chance of a September rate hike and a 60% chance of one or more hikes by year-end, according to the CME website. While the U.S. recovery has seemed to regain its footing since some pronounced weakness in the first half of 2016, long-dated Treasury yields remain quite low, even in the context of this year's ranges. The excuse given by many market observers -- including some Fed policymakers -- is that asset purchases by the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and now the Bank of England are artificially depressing yields at the long end of the curve. The evidence, however, does not show an inflow of foreign money into U.S. Treasuries. In fact, the data show a reversal of foreign inflows and they are now becoming outflows
  • Today's release of personal income and spending data clears the U.S. calendar of big data points until Wednesday's ADP Employment Change for August. The 20-city Case-Shiller house price index, released on Tuesday, should not make waves in markets nor should the August Consumer Confidence reading
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.82%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.20%
    • 10-yr: -4 bps to 1.59%
    • 30-yr: -4 bps to 2.25%
  • 2-Year/10-Year Treasury Yield Spread:

10-Yr: +11/32… EUR/USD: 1.1170… USD/JPY: 102.20…

09:10AM ET

Treasuries Try to Catch Bears Offsides

  • U.S. Treasuries are still trading higher this morning in a curve-flattening trade despite strong growth in personal income and spending during July (June's growth was revised upward). The S&P 500 is set to open uup 0.14% to 2,272.3 and WTI crude is down 1.53% to $46.91/bbl.
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (FOMC voter) said that the case for a further rate hike from the Fed was "compelling," in an interview with the Financial Times that was published on Sunday. Barring sharp weakness in financial markets or the U.S. economy before the September FOMC meeting, this language may indicate that Mester will dissent along with Kansas City Fed President Esther George if the FOMC votes to keep rates on hold
    • Mester acknowledged that Q2 GDP growth was soft (1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate) but that the consumer is strong
  • The most prominent left-leaning economists pushed back against the Fed's apparent intention to continue with normalization of monetary policy 
    • Larry Summers, former Treasury secretary
    • Paul Krugman, Op-Ed contributor at NY Times
    • Former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Jared Bernstein (in the Washington Post) also protested against rate hikes
  • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Saturday that "there is no doubt that there is ample space for additional easing in each of the three dimensions." He was referring to negative interest rates, monetary-base guidance, and asset purchases. Kuroda went on to say, "The Bank of Japan will continue to carefully examine risks to activity and prices at each monetary policy meeting, and take additional monetary policy measures without hesitation."
    • As we said on Friday, the yen appears to have failed to break the USD/JPY 100 level a few times this summer and we see a reversal to be an increasing likelihood
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -1 bp to 0.83%
    • 5-yr: -2 bps to 1.21%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.60%
    • 30-yr: -4 bps to 2.25% 

10-Yr: +10/32… EUR/USD: 1.1169… USD/JPY: 102.29…

08:43AM ET

Personal Income and Spending Growth Exceed Estimates, Prior Month Revised Up

  • U.S. Treasuries are adding to gains this morning after the release of data showing that U.S. personal income rose 0.4% m/m in July, in line with the Briefing.com consensus. June's growth was 0.3%, revised up from 0.2%
    • Personal spending climbed 0.3% in July, also matching the Briefing.com consensus estimate. June's growth in personal spending was 0.5%, revised up from 0.4%
    • Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) Prices ticked up by 0.1% m/m in July (1.6% y/y), in line with both the Briefing.com consensus and June's growth rate
    • The savings rate climbed from 5.5% to 5.7% 
  • The S&P 500 is set to open up 0.11% to 2,171.6 and WTI crude is down 1.24% to $47.05/bbl.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.21% to 95.77 and gold is down 0.19% to $1,323.4/troy oz.
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.82%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.20%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.60%
    • 30-yr: -3 bps to 2.26%

10-Yr: +10/32… EUR/USD: 1.1171… USD/JPY: 102.25…

08:21AM ET

Eurozone Yields Broadly Higher

  • Eurozone sovereign yields are broadly higher this morning as traders there have taken their cue from the sharp fall in U.S. Treasuries on Friday, following Fed Chair Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole. She said that the case for hiking rates "has strengthened in recent months," and this has caused markets to seriously contemplate a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting
  • European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said that "if other actors do not take the necessary measures in their policy domains, we may need to dive deeper into our operational framework and strategy to do so."
    • In short, if governments are not pleased with the ECB's unconventional monetary policy and negative interest rates, they need to loosen fiscal policy and implement structural reforms
    • The ECB meets on September 8
  • Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said that he did not see an end to the inexorable rise in property values in the U.K. "as long as we continue not to build anything like as many houses in this country as we need to"
  • Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Andrea Maechler said that she sees no scope to raise the SNB's key policy rate from its current level of -0.75%
  • Economic Data:
    • The Italian Business Confidence Index fell more than expected in August to 101.1 from the prior reading of 102.9
      • The Consumer Confidence Index also fell more than expected in August to 109.2 from 111.2 in July
    • Greece's official estimate of Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.2% q/q from 0.3%
  • Yield Check:
    • France, 10-yr OAT: +5 bps to 0.20%
    • Germany, 10-yr Bund: +3 bps to -0.05%
    • Greece, 10-yr note: +3 bps to 7.99%
    • Italy, 10-yr BTP: +3 bps to 1.14%
    • Portugal, 10-yr PGB: unch at 3.03%
    • Spain, 10-yr ODE: +4 bps to 0.95%
    • U.K., 10-yr Gilt: -1 bp to 0.56% (U.K. markets are on holiday)

10-Yr: +6/32… EUR/USD: 1.1172… USD/JPY: 102.27…

07:34AM ET

Treasuries Edge Higher Ahead of Personal Income/Spending

  • U.S. Treasuries are trading slightly higher in a curve-flattening trade this morning as investors continue to digest Fed Chair Yellen's speech on Friday, in which she said that the case for a Fed rate hike "has strengthened in recent months." While her speech did not explicitly mention the "next" FOMC meeting as a likely one for a rate hike, many market analysts are saying that a strong August jobs report -- due out this Friday -- will make a September rate hike more than likely. Fed fund futures currently indicate a 33% probability of a September hike in the Fed funds rate. The U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.16% to 95.72 and the S&P 500 is set to open up 0.05% to 2,171. WTI crude is down 1.36% to $46.99/bbl. and gold is down 0.22% to $1,323/troy oz. Personal income and spending data for July is the only significant U.S. economic release today
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: unch at 0.84%
    • 5-yr: unch at 1.23%
    • 10-yr: -2 bps to 1.62%
    • 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.27%
  • International News:
    • In Australia, HIA New Home Sales fell 9.7% m/m in July, reversing June's 8.2% jump
    • The Italian Business Confidence Index fell more than expected in August to 101.1 from the prior reading of 102.9
      • The Consumer Confidence Index also fell more than expected in August to 109.2 from 111.2 in July
    • Greece's official estimate of Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 0.2% q/q from 0.3%
  • Data out Today:
    • July Personal Income and Spending (08:30 ET)
    • July Core PCE Prices (08:30 ET)

10-Yr: +4/32… EUR/USD: 1.1177… USD/JPY: 102.20…

03:22PM ET

Yellen Says the Case for a Rate Hike Has Strengthened

  • U.S. Treasuries suffered significant losses today after Fed Chair Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole led traders to price in a greater chance for a September rate hike. While the initial interpretation by markets was positive (dovish), Fed Vice Chair Fischer clarified her remarks later in the morning and that sent U.S. Treasuries reeling. U.S. stocks quickly joined the sell-off on the fear of higher interest rates and the U.S. Dollar Index reversed higher to finish the week with a solid gain (+0.75% to 95.48). The S&P 500 is down 0.20% to 2,168.3. The second official estimate of Q2 U.S. GDP growth was released this morning and showed the economy expanding at just 1.1%, but Fed officials appear confident that growth will return to a 3% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter. Fed Governor Jerome Powell echoed his remarks from earlier in August when he said that the Fed should gradually tighten monetary policy but should also be patient. Fed governors always vote on the FOMC
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: +4 bps to 0.84%
    • 5-yr: +6 bps to 1.22%
    • 10-yr: +5 bps to 1.62%
    • 30-yr: +4 bps to 2.29%
  • News:
    • Fed Chair Yellen said this morning that "in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months."
      • Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer later said that Yellen's remarks were consistent with the possibility of a September rate hike. Fischer also said that the August jobs report (due out next Friday) would play a big role in the September FOMC decision
    • Fed Governor Powell said that the Fed should be patient with rate hikes but that the U.S. economy is on solid footing despite the growth slowdown in the first half of 2016. Powell went on to say that he believes in a gradual pace of rate hikes
    • U.S. Q2 GDP growth was revised down to a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second official estimate. The Briefing.com consensus was 1.1%
      • The GDP deflator's growth was revised up to a 2.3% SAAR from the preliminary estimate of 2.2%. The Briefing.com consensus was for 2.2%
      • Growth in real consumer spending was revised up to a 4.4% SAAR from the initial estimate of 4.2%
      • Gross domestic income grew at just 0.2% q/q in the second quarter
    • The U.S. deficit in international trade in goods fell to $59.3 bln in July from $64.5 bln in June
    • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (FOMC voter) said this morning on CNBC said that she sees a gradual upward pace of interest rates. Every meeting is a "live meeting" for her. Commercial real estate is frothy in some parts of the country
    • Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (non-FOMC voter) said this morning that sluggish business spending is one of the major risks to a U.S. GDP growth rebound in the second half of 2016. He went on to say, "I can see two rate hikes as possible when I look at the calendar. We have three more meetings this year, so that's possible."
  • Commodities:
    • WTI crude: -0.08% to $47.29/bbl. 
    • Gold: -0.02% to $1,324.4/troy oz. 
    • Copper: +0.02% to $2.077/lb.
  • Currencies:
    • EUR/USD: -0.80% to 1.1195
    • USD/JPY: +1.22% to 11.80
  • Week Ahead:
    • Monday: July Personal Income and Spending (08:30 ET); July Core PCE Prices (08:30 ET)
    • Tuesday: June Case-Shiller 20-city Index (09:00 ET); August Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET)
    • Wednesday: Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) (03:15 ET); MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending 8/27 (07:00 ET); Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-FOMC voter) (08:00 ET); August ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET); August Chicago PMI (09:45 ET); July Pending Home Sales (10:00 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 8/27 (10:30 ET); Chicago Fed President Evans (non-FOMC voter) (15:15 ET)
    • Thursday: August Challenger Job Cuts (08:30 ET); Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 8/27 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 8/20 (08:30 ET); Q2 Productivity (Revised) and Unit Labor Costs (Revised) (08:30 ET); July Construction Spending (10:00 ET); August ISM Index (10:00 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 8/20 (10:30 ET); Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks on 'Community Development' (12:25 ET); August Auto and Truck Sales (14:00 ET)
    • Friday: August Employment Situation Report (08:30 ET); July Trade Balance (08:30 ET); July Factory Orders (10:00 ET); Richmond Fed President Lacker (non-FOMC voter) (13:00 ET)

10-Yr: -14/32… EUR/USD: 1.1195… USD/JPY: 101.80…

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