Updated: 02-23-2015

Turn in Bond Market?
Updated: 20-Feb-15  04:40PM ET
Analyst: David Kelland

5-Yr Note:

As the chart below depicts, the 5-year yield cut through its 50-day moving average with relative ease, reached its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, traded back down to the 50-day, the 50% Fib, and the speculative uptrend we've drawn, and then rallied to straight-line resistance at 1.63%.

The 5-year yield then fell back down to the uptrend and seems to be finding support there. Even getting back below the 61.8% fib retracement at 1.55% would call the end-of-the-bull-market thesis into question, but getting below that trendline might be a good buy-signal.


10-Yr Note:
The 10-year yield followed much the same path as the 5-year yield during the February break, slicing through its 50-day moving average and eventually finding support at the 61.8% retracement of the Christmas Eve rally. The 10-year yield is different from the 5-year yield, however, in that it still remains under a significant downtrend that began on 12/31/2013.

30-Yr Bond: The 30-yr yield looks pretty similar to the 10-year yield, but it clearly broke the downtrend that began on 9/17/2014, and has now found that line as support two times. Testing a third time seems unnecessary and likely to fail. (The trend that comes in at 2.79% today is drawn from the high of December 31st, 2013.)

-- David Kelland, Briefing.com

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